Objectives: Understanding China's burden of depressive disorders in the context of global trends is essential for guiding mental health policy. This study sought to evaluate the evolving trajectories of depressive disorders in China over an extended period, while concurrently examining their alignment with—and divergence from—global epidemiological trends through 2050. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study were used to estimate age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for depressive disorders in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, stratified by sex and age. Temporal trends were evaluated using estimated annual percentage changes. Projections from 2022 to 2050 were generated using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model with population forecasts. Results: In 2021, China exhibited lower incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates for depressive disorders relative to global average levels. Females consistently experienced a higher burden across all age groups. From 1990 to 2021, China showed a declining burden, particularly among individuals aged 10–54 years. However, increasing trends were observed among children under 10 and adults aged 55 years and older. Globally, the burden remained stable overall but increased among adolescents and older adults. Projections suggest that China's burden will continue to decline, while the global burden is expected to rise markedly. Conclusions: While China has advanced in alleviating depressive disorders, rising trends in younger/older demographics demand urgent action. Globally, depression poses a growing public health challenge. Age/gender-sensitive mental health policies are crucial for mitigating future burdens and disparities.

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